The EIA has released its annual energy outlook for 2017 so here is the short version with some additional analysis.
For starters, the EIA sees no growth for nuclear power industry. Nuclear generation is expected to decline slowly from now through 2040 as units are retired and relatively little new nuclear capacity comes online.
In contrast, EIA’s assessment of the renewable sector shows strong growth. From 612 billion kwh in 2016, renewable generation is expected to climb to 1,212 billion kwh by 2040.
The third major finding in EIA’s analysis has coal generation moving little from its initial 1,232 billion kwh, reaching 1,400 billion kwh in the late 2020s before falling back to 1,390 billion kwh in 2040. Overall, coal’s share of the electric generation market would decline from 30.3% to an estimated 27.8% of annual generation.
Keep in mind that the EIA projections do not reflect the possibility of future regulations such as the now assumed defunct Clean Power Plan. Should another administration or even a number of state governments implement emission reduction targets then coal share would drop relative to other power sources. The federal government has never set a comprehensive national energy policy anyways whereas many states have their own policies planned or in place making this a real possibility.
The EIA previously released data on the LCOE for new generation resources projected for 2020 which helps to explain some of its conclusions in the 2017 Outlook.
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Fracking and horizontal-drilling capabilities have vastly lowered the cost of natural gas as reflected in the table above.
Prices for solar power modules have fallen 70% in the past six years.
Wind power costs have dropped 58% in the past five years.
Battery prices, which are seen as complementary to intermittent power sources like wind and solar, have also fallen approximately 14% annually since 2007.